BoE: A close call between 50bps and 75bps – Danske Bank

Next week, the Bank of England will have its monetary policy decision. Consensus points to a 50 bps rate hike but a 75 bps is not ruled out. Analysts at Danske Bank expect fewer hikes than priced in markets as they emphasise the rising recession risk in the UK. 

Key Quotes: 

“We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the Bank Rate by another 50bp at its next meeting bringing it to 2.25%. Markets are currently pricing around 65-70bp. We expect 50bp as opposed to 75bp, as we are more negative on the growth outlook. Also BoE has had a tendency to surprise to the dovish side at recent meetings.”

“BoE was the first G10 central bank to forecast a recession by Q4 2022 at its last meeting, while using a far more dovish market pricing as policy input than what is currently priced. We see this as a contributing factor to our base case as the growth outlook looks considerably worse now than back then given current market pricing.”