Noticias de trading

The shared currency begins the week on a lower note, down 0.31% as risk aversion fueled flows towards the US Dollar amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also, hawkish comments by a Fed official underpinned US Treasury yields, suggesting markets expect the US central bank to raise rates.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH fell more than expected to 6.7766 before rebounding, with the sharp decline seen stabilising and intraday consolidation likely between 6.7780 and 6.7920. For the next 1–3 weeks, they expect range trading between 6.7700 and 6.8100.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe that USD/SGD has turned slightly softer, tracking Renminbi (RMB) gains as the Dollar consolidates. They see risks skewed to the downside, with support at 1.29 and 1.2840 and resistance at 1.2980.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) surges toward 101.30, gaining around 0.3% as escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran boost safe-haven demand and drive energy prices sharply higher.

DBS Group Research, led by Ma Tieying, assesses Taiwan’s AI-driven expansion and its implications for the 2H26 outlook. The bank notes that AI remains central for Taiwan’s technology-oriented economy and that the AI supercycle is nearing a peak.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the OPR at 2.75% for a sixth straight meeting, maintaining a cautious tone on global risks. Growth is still expected within a 4–5% range, with inflation contained.

The New Zealand Dollar recoiled during Monday’s North American session, down 0.12%, as the Greenback posted gains versus most G8 FX currencies amid rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish comments from a Fed Governor. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5754, down from daily highs of 0.5789.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/CNH dipped after a stronger USD/CNY fix below 6.80, the first such level since February 2023. They read this as policymakers being comfortable with further RMB appreciation while managing the pace.

Silver price remains below $60.00 as the week begins, and dives nearly 4% on Monday amid tensions in the Middle East, driving inflationary pressures higher.

USD/JPY trades higher near 162.40 on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens amid escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The US Dollar (USD) remains supported by higher Oil prices and growing concerns that renewed energy pressure could keep global inflation elevated.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) regains momentum on Monday after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller boosted expectations of an interest rate hike as early as this month.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD opened stronger after a quiet prior session, with upward momentum tentatively building but still facing resistance around 1.2945–1.2955. For the next 1–3 weeks, they keep its view that USD/SGD will trade between 1.2890 and 1.2990.

United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-120B, above forecasts ($-132.8B) in June

Gold price (XAU/USD) plunges on Monday after remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who revealed that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises this week, the Fed should consider interest rate hikes.

Crude Oil is repricing the death of a framework rather than any single missile exchange.

AUD/USD trades lower near 0.6930 on Monday, retreating from an opening level of around 0.6950 as escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran bolster the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD).

The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders react to renewed hostilities in the Middle East. At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.8126, up 0.50% on the day and marking its highest level since June 25.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Emerging Markets (EM) equity positioning is heavily skewed toward South Korea and Taiwan, with the rest of EM seeing historically low allocations. China’s weakness and poor EM data have already driven valuations to price in disinflation and weak growth.

The Pound Sterling begins the week on a lower note, as over-the-weekend developments in the Middle East fueled inflationary pressures due to the rise in Oil prices. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3369, down over 0.20%.

Risk aversion set Monday's tone, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average wore it better than most of its peers; the index trades near 52,525, down 117 points, or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite sheds 1% and the S&P 500 gives back 0.4%.