EUR/USD to test August 10 high near 1.0370 on a clean breach of 1.02 – BBH

EUR/USD has traded as high as 1.02 earlier. A break above here would open up a move towards 1.0370, economists at BBH report.

European Central Bank sticks to hawkish stance

“A clean break above 1.02 would set up a test of the August 10 high near 1.0370.”

“ECB officials are sticking to the hawkish message. Taking a lesson from the Fed, the bank is trying to stay on message and so far, the markets like it. Despite these comments, we believe nothing has fundamentally changed. We think the ECB’s base case forecast of no recession is way too optimistic and that a downturn will eventually prevent the ECB from hiking that aggressively. That said, no one should stand in the way of this move, which is also being exaggerated by position skew going into the ECB meeting.”