EUR seen on an upward path vs. most majors – Morgan Stanley

Despite widening peripheral spreads in Europe, the EUR is likely to hold an upper hand against the US dollar, pound and the yen in the coming months.

Key quotes

“We remain bullish on EUR versus the USD, GBP, and JPY.”

“Widening peripheral spreads in Europe may keep the ECB from normalizing too quickly, but we don't think it will fully blunt the EUR's rise as the ECB is likely to hike rates to 0% by March 2023.”

“Positioning has moved meaningfully in the short term, presenting a key risk to watch, though we think the more medium-term theme of fund flow reallocation should keep the EUR on an upward path over time.”