EUR/PLN to drop towards 4.50 on a hawkish hike by NBP – SocGen

The first central bank meeting of 2022 will be held today by the National Bank of Poland (NBP). EUR/PLN is now probing the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 4.57. The prospects of raising the benchmark rate by 50 bps should underpin the zloty at this level, in the opinion of economists at Société Générale.

The consensus sees NBP raising its benchmark rate by 50 bps to 2.25%

“Our house call is in line with the market consensus for a 50bp hike to 2.25%. The prospect of a hawkish hike and more details of the tightening path at the press conference tomorrow by governor Glapinski ought to support the zloty and keep EUR/PLN near 4.57 (200-DMA).”

“In case the 200-DMA at 4.57 gets violated, there would be a risk of a deeper pullback towards the lower band of the channel at 4.5000/4.4800.”

“Right shoulder of the pattern at 4.6460 is an important hurdle near-term.”