AUD/USD bulls await the outcome of a critical US/domestic calendar this week

• AUD/USD bulls are pushing for a bullish monthly close. 
• A busy calendar both domestically and in the US is expected to make for volatility. 

The Australian dollar is a touch lower vs the greenback and the euro, taking second place to its sister antipodean currency, the New Zealand dollar. 

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 1.7357in a relatively weak US dollar environment following an outside day for the DXY index on Friday. 

AUD/USD has given back some of the headway made since the Jackson Hole on Friday that failed to support the greenback on account of a dovish speech from the Federal Reserve's chairman.

Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed, delivered a speech that enabled the commodity complex to rally and the Aussie responded in kind, rallying to a fresh August high of $0.7318 offered.

AUD/USD has since fallen back below the 0.73 figure on Monday to a low of 0.7284. 

Meanwhile, markets are in wait and see mode on a critical week for both the US and domestically. 

Owing to the speech from Powell, traders are in high anticipation of both US PMIs this Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the week especially. 

If there disappoint, then the US dollar could find itself staring into the abyss, for it failed to close above 93.50 last week:

(Daily chart)

The monthly counter-trendline could come under pressure in the day's weeks ahead if the pace of the US economic recovery converges with the rest of the world. 

''If the outlook changes and the U.S. economy slows significantly, then it would be a likely game-changer for the dollar,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman agreed.

''The Fed would have no choice but to adjust its expected tapering path significantly.'' 

However, their analysts are somewhat more optimistic. 

''Yet even then, the dollar may hold up better than expected since a US recession would likely be part of a broader global downturn.  It all goes back to relative performances.''

Meanwhile, Australia also reports some key data this week.  

The second quarter (Q2) current account data, July building approvals, and private sector credit will be reported Tuesday and Q2 Gross Domestic Product will be reported Wednesday, with growth expected at 0.5% QoQ vs. 1.8% in Q1.  

Then, we will have July trade data that will be reported Thursday, with exports expected to rise 4% MoM vs. 4% in June and imports expected to rise 2% vs. 1% in June.  

Final manufacturing PMI will also be reported Wednesday, followed by final services and composite PMIs Friday.

''The Reserve Bank of Australia should proceed with tapering at its next policy meeting September 7,'' the analysts at BBH recalled.

''Some are calling for the RBA to delay tapering, as GDP could contract in Q3 due to the extended lockdowns,'' which is a potential spanner in the works for AUD bulls, playing into the hands of AUD/NZD bears.

AUD/USD technical analysis

Meanwhile, the bearish outlook from a longer-term perspective continues to playout below the 200-month Smoothed Simple Moving Average and monthly dynamic trendline resistance:

A bearish close for August on failures to break above 0.7344/50 will expose the wick and leave it vulnerable to a downside fill due to subsequent selling pressures on the lower time frames for the month of September.

However, from a daily perspective, the bulls have made some good progress since stabilising mid-month.

With over 25-hours to go until the close of the month, bears can lean on daily support near 0.7280 for there is still the upside to play for in the coming sessions: