AUD/USD set to refresh yearly low under 0.7500, coronavirus, NFP in focus

• AUD/USD bears take a breather near the fresh low since December 2020.
• Covid conditions remain grim in Australia, National Cabinet meets today.
• US ISM PMI, Jobless Claims back hawkish Fedspeak and firmer USD.
• Virus news, NFP will entertain the markets, pre-data anxiety may curb moves.

AUD/USD remains depressed around the fresh low of 2021, flashed before a few hours, despite rejecting further downside below 0.7459 amid the early Friday morning in Asia. That said, the quote consolidates the recent losses near 0.7470 as the key day begins.

A sustained increase in the coronavirus (COVID-19) cases could be marked as the key catalyst behind the AUD/USD weakness. Also weighing on the quote are mixed data at home, in contrast to the firmer US economics and hawkish Fedspeak that underpin the US dollar strength.

Australia refreshed the 2021 covid count, unfortunately, with 49 new cases on June 30, per ABC News data. Following the news, state governments started pushing the center towards faster vaccinations and ease the rejection of AstraZeneca jabbing. However, nothing changed and the National Cabinet is up for a meeting today to discuss the level of inoculation required for unlock. The meeting may convey news on how to speed up the vaccination and hence AUD/USD traders will be interested in hearing more about AstraZeneca vaccine usage for fresh impulse.

Talking about data, Australia Trade Balance for May eased below 10000M forecast but Imports and Exports recovered. Further, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI eased below forecast and prior readouts in June. On the other hand, US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in a touch softer than 61.00 expected but the components are promising, especially the inflation one. Additionally backing the US dollar was the weaker-than-expected Weekly Jobless Claims and its four-week average.

Following the releases, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker told the Wall Street Journal that he supports the start of bond-buying pullback later this year.

It’s worth mentioning that the latest updates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised the US GDP growth projection to 7.0% from 6.4% in April due to unprecedented fiscal, monetary support, which in turn backs the greenback bulls.

Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks remained firm for Thursday while the US 10-year Treasury yield added 1.5 basis points (bps) to 1.459%. Further, the US dollar index (DXY) rose to a fresh high in early April.

Looking forward, the pre-NFP trading lull may restrict AUD/USD moves amid a light calendar. However, the covid woes in Asia-Pacific and the recently hawkish Fedspeak may keep the bears hopeful.

Read: NFP Preview: Four reasons why June's jobs report could be a dollar downer

Technical analysis

A daily closing below 0.7477, the previous yearly bottom, directs AUD/USD bears towards August 2020 tops near 0.7415. Meanwhile, the 0.7500 threshold and 200-SMA near 0.7570 act as nearby hurdles to cross during the corrective pullback.