USD/CAD to trade below 1.30 on a Fed shift to average inflation targeting – Westpac

USD/CAD is likely to hold to a 1.30-1.35 range into year’s end, though medium-term risks are building for a period of sub-1.30 trade as global prospects continue to firm, economists at Westpac apprise.

Key quotes

“And yet spec positioning remains resolutely negative (-33k net short contracts on the CFTC), despite record highs for US equities and resilient energy prices. That may well fuel some further near-term CAD upside, as will the persistently solid data run of late.” 

“While high frequency mobility indicators show a levelling out in Canada’s recovery through August, traditional data continues to show the recovery gaining momentum. Canada also one of the few G10 economies that has so far managed to keep a second infection wave at bay.”

“USD/CAD is likely to hold to a 1.30-1.35 range into year’s end, though medium-term risks building for a period of sub-1.30 trade, a Fed shift to average inflation targeting likely to trigger another leg lower in the USD and global prospects continuing to firm.”