Precious Metals: A vaccine poses a major risk for gold bugs – TDS

Hopes of a vaccine catalyzed an aggressive bid in risk assets, but also led to a reversal of safe-haven flows which have kept the precious metals market afloat in recent weeks, per TD Securities.

Key quotes

“Aside from the immediate implications for speculative flows, a vaccine could mitigate the need for a prolonged period of unprecedented policy support, which poses a key risk for gold bugs.”

“We continue to expect that amid extreme monetary inflation, capital will seek to shelter itself from a prolonged period of negative real rates following the pandemic.” 

“Downside momentum signals are deteriorating in the industrial-precious metals as their industrial component shifts from a headwind to a tailwind.”