25 Jun 2014
US Q1 GDP growth shockingly disappointing - BNP Paribas
FXStreet (Łódź) - Alexandra Estiot, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas believes that today's third disappointing US Q1 GDP print means that it is highly probable that 2014 GDP growth will be unable to pick up from the already low 1.9% of 2013.
Key quotes
"The May report for durable goods brought news that looks bad at first sight but are not, with new orders down 1%, a negative surprise that was, however, mainly due to plunging new orders for defence and transportation goods."
"When it comes to the first quarter, data released today proved shocking, as the final reading for GDP growth came in at -2.9% (annualised quarterly based), down from a preliminary -1% and advance estimate of +0.1%."
"But the real shock came from the massive revision of consumer spending data. Two months ago, the advance estimate was for a growth of 3.1%, hardly revised to 3% a month later. Today, the new reading is +1%!"
"With such a terrible beginning of the year, and despite the fact that the second quarter is set to record strong acceleration, there is a very high probability that GDP growth will fail to accelerate from the already low 1.9% of 2013."
Key quotes
"The May report for durable goods brought news that looks bad at first sight but are not, with new orders down 1%, a negative surprise that was, however, mainly due to plunging new orders for defence and transportation goods."
"When it comes to the first quarter, data released today proved shocking, as the final reading for GDP growth came in at -2.9% (annualised quarterly based), down from a preliminary -1% and advance estimate of +0.1%."
"But the real shock came from the massive revision of consumer spending data. Two months ago, the advance estimate was for a growth of 3.1%, hardly revised to 3% a month later. Today, the new reading is +1%!"
"With such a terrible beginning of the year, and despite the fact that the second quarter is set to record strong acceleration, there is a very high probability that GDP growth will fail to accelerate from the already low 1.9% of 2013."