US GDP: The outlook for Q2 is even worse – NBF

The longest economic expansion in U.S. history has officially come to an end, Krishen Rangasamy from the National Bank of Canada informs.

Key quotes

“The world’s largest economy saw a real GDP contract 4.8% annualized in Q1. That’s the first quarterly contraction in six years and the largest since 2008 Q4 when the U.S. was mired in recession.”

“With social distancing measures (if not outright lockdowns) expected to extend into May, the outlook for Q2 is even worse, a GDP contraction of more than 30% annualized is in the cards for that quarter.” 

“We’re still expecting a rebound in the second half of the year as firms replenish inventories and consumers make use of increased savings. But the amplitude of the rebound will largely depend on the extent of capacity destruction in the first half.”