When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release a minutes statement of the latest monetary policy meeting held during early-April.

The RBA’s April month monetary policy meeting offered a surprise announcement concerning the tapering of the bond purchase. As a result, traders will be closely observing any hints suggesting the same, which in turn makes the minutes more important.

Following the minutes, RBA Governor Philip Lowe will also speak, at 05:00 GMT, on “Economic and Financial Update”. With the recently better than forecast employment data, RBA’s Lowe will also be closely watched for fresh impetus.

Westpac highlights the importance of the details while saying that the market will be looking for commentary around the Bank’s yield curve control, and guidance on the impact of the shutdown.

On the other hand, TD Securities said,

The major takeaway from the Apr statement was the RBA's comfort to taper its bond purchases. The market is likely to seek more clarity around the RBA's thinking on this from the minutes. The Governor's speech that is to follow 4 hours later will be an "Economic and financial update". So far the RBA has not provided the market any economic forecasts. The RBA may do this address aspects of its Bond Buying program.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

Although it’s not a good time to step back from the monetary policy easing, considering the rampant coronavirus (COVID-19) led damages, any strong suggestions or agreement over the same could offer intermediate strength to the AUD/USD pair. Also, upbeat comments from the RBA’s Lowe could add strength to the pair, if it manages to rise after the RBA minutes.

Technically, a four-week-old rising trend line around 0.6305 acts as the immediate key support for the pair ahead of the March-end high that stays near 0.6200. Meanwhile, buyers are less likely to enter unless witness a fresh monthly high past-0.6445.

Key Notes

AUD/USD remains depressed above 0.6300 ahead of RBA minutes

AUD/USD Forecast: Waiting for RBA Meeting’s Minutes

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.