Canada: CPI inflation to firm to 2.2% in November – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for Canada’s CPI inflation to firm to 2.2% YoY in November as a 0.1% MoM decline is offset by sizable base effects from 2018.

Key Quotes

“Gasoline prices fell by 9.4% m/m last November, and more modest declines this year should see the year-ago drag from energy diminish by 0.2pp. Higher food prices should help offset the month-over-month decline in gasoline, while muted base-effects to CPI-trim and CPI-median present a high bar for any pullback in core CPI, which should leave the average of the three near 2.1% y/y. Teranet home prices for November will be published alongside CPI.”