US recession risks: what is the data telling us? - TD Securities

"The recent souring of some financial and survey indicators has fanned fears of a US recession," note TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"While "long-leading" financial indicators like the yield curve are suggesting greater-than-even odds of a recession, coincident economic data and leading indicators point to no imminent danger."

"Regime-change models assign low probabilities of the US economy currently being in recession as GDP growth, employment, and other indicators remain healthy. However, with business investment slowing, the onus remains on the consumer to keep the economy going."

"While economic data continues to point to low odds of a recession, we expect the FOMC to act in a preemptive fashion as the risks to the outlook remain asymmetric. We are looking for another 25bp cut by the Fed this week, as part of its mid-cycle adjustment."