UK: Mixed labour market data – TD Securities

According to analysts at TD Securities, this morning's UK labour market data was a bit of a mixed bag, but on net they think that it was a positive outcome.

Key Quotes

“The soft spot was the unemployment rate coming in a tenth higher than expected at 3.9%. But the trend in employment growth is quite strong (+115K 3m/3m rate vs mkt 60k), so that points to a more robust labour market picture. Ex-bonus wage growth was in line with our forecast and a bit stronger than expected at 3.9% y/y (mkt 3.8%), notably hitting its highest growth rate since before the financial crisis.”

“And real wage growth (1.8% y/y) has finally returned to where it was before the EU Referendum in June 2016 and the associated inflation shock from the fall in GBP.”