AUD will move lower to USD0.68 in late-2019 - Westpac

Elliot Clarke, analyst at Westpac, suggests that they are looking for AUD/USD to fall to USD0.68 in late-2019, then USD0.66 in early-2020.

Key Quotes

“The Australian dollar has again held to a tight range this month. High and rising commodity prices provided support, but it was hard for the bulls to get too carried away as a further rate cut was delivered by the RBA and the domestic outlook remained dour. We remain of the view that the AUD will move lower to USD0.68 in late-2019, then to USD0.66 in early-2020.”

“In terms of upside for the Australian dollar, apart from another iron ore surprise in the very near term, the risks look to be marginal. One point to watch however is the stance of fiscal policy. While we don’t see the Government’s tax plan as a game changer, a large infrastructure investment drive could support the economy and reduce the RBA’s need to act, thereby supporting the Australian dollar.”