AUD/NZD: Bears in control below trendline support and 200 4HR SMA

• AUD/NZD sinks to 1.0530 on Aussie GDP data miss.
• AUD/NZD currently trades at 1.0556, down -0.23% at the time of writing. 

AUD/NZD has fallen on the back of the Australian Gross Domestic Product data. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey was up to 0.5%  for the quarter (Q) while meeting market consensus. However, the data arrived as follows:

• 0.4% Q/Q vs 0.5% Q/Q expected and prior 0.2% Q/Q.
• 1.8% year on year (Y/Y) vs expected 1.8% (Y/Y) and prior 2.3% Y/Y.

GDP summary:

The Australian economy grew by 0.4% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the March quarter.
Government final consumption expenditure contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
Net exports contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth driven by an increase in exports.
Compensation of employees increased by 1.2%.
The terms of trade rose 3.1%.

The RBA yesterday signalled its stance on the economy and adopted a wait and see policy before cutting rates again this year following a 25 basis point cut. However, disappointments in the economic performance such as this lowers the bar for a rate cut later this year. 

AUD/NZD levels

The pair has now completed a 38.2% Fibo retracement to 1.0550 and has exceeded the level, but just a touch. There is a bearish bias according to hourly stochastics and the 1.05 handle could come under threat on a run to the 50% retracement of the same range with the price pressured below both the 200 D EMA and the 200 4HR EMA/trendline support.