Bank of Canada done raising rates, 40% chance of cut by end-2020 – Reuters poll

Reuters came out with polling results of 40 economists closely watching the Bank of Canada (BOC) during early Friday. The poll says that the Canadian central bank is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, with a serious risk of a cut by then as policymakers become more wary of slowing growth and global trade tensions.

Key findings:

While median forecasts show rates unchanged from here on, forecasters were split in three directions starting from the fourth quarter of this year. By end-2020, about two-thirds who provided a view said rates would be either unchanged or lower.

While the BoC cut its near-term growth outlook in last month’s quarterly monetary policy review, it expects the economy to rebound in the second half of this year.

But not everyone is convinced that is about to happen.

Chances of a rate cut this year are a little less than 20%, according to market speculators.

One major concern is the U.S.-China trade war, which has heated up over the past month. A Reuters poll taken earlier in May found the risk of recession in the U.S., Canada’s largest trading partner, had risen this month.

Reuters survey of property market experts published earlier this week showed Canada’s housing market will stay stuck in the doldrums, with average prices stagnating this year and then rising 1.7% next year.