Japan exports to fall for a fifth month in April amid US-China trade escalation - Reuters poll

The Reuters poll of economists showed on Friday that a majority of them see the Japanese exports falling for the fifth consecutive month in April, in the wake of the US-China trade escalation.

Key Findings:

“Exports are forecast to have declined 1.8% in April from a year earlier, according to the median forecast in the poll of 15 economists, after a 2.4% annual decline in March.

Japan and many other export-reliant economies have suffered collateral damage in the 10-month-long Sino-U.S. trade war, which has disrupted global supply chains and weighed on business confidence.

Imports are expected to have risen 4.8% on-year in April, resulting in a 203.2 billion yen ($1.85 billion) trade surplus, the poll showed.

Meanwhile, Core machinery orders are forecast to have fallen 0.7% in March from the previous month. While highly volatile, the data series is regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months.

The poll also found Japan’s core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 0.9% in April from year ago, versus a 0.8% annual increase in March.”