GBP/USD toying with 1.6900

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is trading on an upbeat tone vs. the greenback on Monday, lifting the GBP/USD to the vicinity of the critical barrier at 1.6900.

GBP/USD focus on UK data, QIR

Spot managed to regain traction after finding decent support in the mid-1.6800s last week, recovering ground lost after hitting multi-year highs near 1.7000 the figure. Very interesting week ahead for the pound, as employment figures are due on Wednesday followed by the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report. “The largely unrevised GDP and CPI inflation forecasts in this week's Inflation Report are much more influential in determining the near-term policy signal. An ongoing projected inflation undershoot will weigh against any pre-emptive rise in Bank Rate and may also see GBP trade more softly than it has of late given the level of long positioning”, assessed Paul Robson, Senior FX Strategist at RBS.

GBP/USD levels to watch

The pair is now advancing 0.24% at 1.6891 and a breakout of 1.6939 (high May 9) would open the door to 1.6975 (high May 8) and finally 1.6997 (2014 high May 6). On the downside, the initial support aligns at 1.6840 (low May 12) ahead of 1.6832 (low May 9) and then 1.6821 (low May 2).

Analyst roundup: Consensus is for BoE hike in the first half of 2015

With UK consumer-price index inflation falling to 1.6 percent in March, calls for an earlier rate hike from the Bank of England have calmed. However, the inflation rate has likely bottomed out, with a rebound to the 2 percent area more likely in the coming prints. But as long as it remains constrained, the consensus seems to be that a rate hike will likely come in the first half of 2015.
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Session Recap: GBP outperforms in quiet trading

Another transition session Monday, with the dollar from little changed to a tad weaker versus majors competitors and the pound among the best performers ahead of the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report to be released next Wednesday.
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