Emerging Asia: Severe dip in external trade – BNP Paribas

Christine Peltier, analyst at BNP Paribas, points out that the industrialized Asian countries are hit by a severe slowdown in their external trade.

Key Quotes

“Signs of weakening have been visible since the beginning of 2018 and aggravated since November, following the last series of US tariff hikes on imports of Chinese goods. In fact, Asian exporters have been severely affected by the contagion effects of these US tariff hikes, as well as by the economic slowdown of the main world trade partners and by the down cycle in the global electronic sector.”

“In January-February 2019, total exports of goods in USD collapsed in China (-5.2% year-on-year), in South Korea (-8.7%) and Taiwan (-4.1%).”

“Export growth slowed down significantly in other countries, including Vietnam (+3.9%). Export prospects for the coming months will depend notably on the outcome of ongoing negotiations between Beijing and Washington. An agreement is expected soon, but trade tensions and the risk of new protectionist measures remain high in the short and medium term.”