NZ: Q3 unemployment to ease to 4.4% - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that for New Zealand’s Q3 employment, they are with consensus looking for the u-rate to ease to 4.4% (from 4.5%) via a +0.5%/q pickup in employment.

Key Quotes

“Where we are not consensus is wages growth: mkt looks for a benign +0.5%/q while we look for +0.7%/q as public servant wage decisions boost wages in the sector. This time last year wages rose +0.6%/q due to the "carer's agreement" so we expect a pip higher.”

“The RBNZ is already of the view that it has met half of its mandate of 'maximum sustainable employment'. A few hours later the RBNZ's 2yr inflation expectations survey is also released, and we look for an upgrade from 2.04% to 2.07%/y.”