Italy’s rating decision and US Q3 GDP amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that today, S&P may publish its rating decision on Italy and will be a key event for markets today. 

Key Quotes

“We expect that the S&P will change the outlook to negative but keep the rating unchanged. This should have modest negative impact on Italian government bonds on Monday next week.”

“In the US, we get the first estimate of GDP growth in Q3. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate says it was 3.9% q/q AR, while the NY Fed Nowcast indicator says it was just 2.2% q/q AR. We are believe it was probably slightly higher than 3.0% q/q AR, which is relatively strong, at least in this expansion.”

“Another important US release is the PCE core which we estimate rose 0.1% m/m in September and it is likely core PCE rose 1.5% q/q AR, but watch out for revisions. The figure will probably not change anything for the Fed, which is on autopilot until it reaches 3% in June next year after hikes in both December and March.”