Japan: Exports slowing overall, but expect near-term rebound – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that according to Japanese Ministry of Finance trade statistics, nominal exports and imports in September 2018 were both weaker than consensus expectations (Bloomberg survey median), while the trade surplus (original series) was ¥139.6bn, as compared to the deficit of ¥333.4bn that the consensus had forecast.

Key Quotes

“While this marked the first trade surplus in three months on an original series basis, we note that there was a trade deficit of ¥238.9bn on a seasonally adjusted basis, for the third straight month of deficits on this basis.”

“We point to rising import value on higher crude oil prices as a likely factor at play here.”