15 Apr 2014
USD/CAD modest resistance around 1.10 - TD Securities
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, expects some resistance around the area of 1.10.
Key Quotes
"USDCAD consolidated Monday. With a long weekend looming and plenty of event risk in between, there was little incentive to drive the CAD one way or the other yesterday."
"For the CAD, the big events this week are the BoC policy meeting Wednesday and the CPI data on Thursday though."
"These events are unlikely to be as CAD-supportive; the BoC is likely to reaffirm its dovish leaning and while inflation may rise modestly in March, CPI remains firmly rooted at the low end of the BoC’s target range. There is little room for the BoC to take a much different line on the policy outlook at present ant we think short CAD positions running into the BoC are warranted."
"Intraday, we spot modest resistance a few ticks above 1.10—where the market based around the turn of the month before dipping to the high 1.08s. We had thought that the USDCAD downside move might extend to a 1.07 handle but the downside move has stalled and the window for a further dip in the USD is closing."
"Gains through 1.1010/20 should see USDCAD firm to 1.1070 (40-day MA at 1.1068) in the next day or so. Strong gains on the week overall for USDCAD will support our growing impression that a medium-term low in USDCAD has been reached."
Key Quotes
"USDCAD consolidated Monday. With a long weekend looming and plenty of event risk in between, there was little incentive to drive the CAD one way or the other yesterday."
"For the CAD, the big events this week are the BoC policy meeting Wednesday and the CPI data on Thursday though."
"These events are unlikely to be as CAD-supportive; the BoC is likely to reaffirm its dovish leaning and while inflation may rise modestly in March, CPI remains firmly rooted at the low end of the BoC’s target range. There is little room for the BoC to take a much different line on the policy outlook at present ant we think short CAD positions running into the BoC are warranted."
"Intraday, we spot modest resistance a few ticks above 1.10—where the market based around the turn of the month before dipping to the high 1.08s. We had thought that the USDCAD downside move might extend to a 1.07 handle but the downside move has stalled and the window for a further dip in the USD is closing."
"Gains through 1.1010/20 should see USDCAD firm to 1.1070 (40-day MA at 1.1068) in the next day or so. Strong gains on the week overall for USDCAD will support our growing impression that a medium-term low in USDCAD has been reached."