US: Hurricane impact to drive wages lower to 2.8% y/y - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from today’s US labor market report due later today at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“The September employment report to show job growth of 180k, slightly below the market consensus for 184k. We do not think Hurricane Florence will have a significant impact on employment, although displaced workers could dampen the headline print.”

“Wages could also see a hurricane impact via reduced hours-worked, which should provide a boost to average hourly earnings. TD looks for wage growth to edge lower to 2.8% y/y, reflecting a 0.3% m/m increase, and expects the unemployment rate to fall back to 3.8%.”