Nonfarm payrolls coming up: expect a strong payroll gain - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their snapshot preview of nonfarm payrolls coming up.

Key Quotes:

"We expect a strong payroll gain of 195k in July (Consensus: 192k), consistent with an economy growing well-above potential, and a healthy 0.22% increase in average hourly earnings (AHE), leaving the 12-month rate unchanged at 2.7% (Consensus: 0.3% m-o-m, 2.7% y-o-y)."

"Strong employment growth and a tick down in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) should lower the unemployment rate 0.1pp to 3.9% (Consensus: 3.9%) with some risk of it falling below that level. Altogether, we expect the July employment report to highlight the firm footing of the US economy moving into Q3 2018."