Eurozone: Focus on inflation and Q2 GDP – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that today we get preliminary estimates of both July HICP inflation and Q2 GDP for Eurozone and are going to be the key economic releases for today’s session.

Key Quotes

“For inflation, we look for core CPI to regain its 1-handle at 1.0% y/y (from 0.947% in June, mkt 1.0%), and with base effects supporting an uptick in y/y energy prices, we look for headline inflation to also edge a tenth higher to 2.1% y/y (mkt: 2.0%). This would be the first time that headline inflation prints above 2% since the end of 2012, although it's not something that the ECB should get overly excited about given the focus on underlying inflation, since the rise is entirely due to food and energy prices.”

“For Q2 GDP, growth looks set to regain some momentum at 0.5% q/q, after slowing to a (still above-trend) rate of 0.4% q/q in 18Q1. After the disappointing French GDP report last week, however, risks tilt slightly to the downside, and firm confidence remained weak in the quarter on trade war worries. Any disappointment should be unwound later this year, however.”