UK: Disappointing retail sales data – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that UK’s June retail sales were disappointing at -0.5% m/m (mkt +0.2%), but coming on the back of "1-handles" in both April and May, still result in the strongest quarterly growth rate (+2.1% q/q) in more than 14 years.

Key Quotes

“We think that the strength in the quarterly print is the much more important factor for the BoE, as it confirms the story that the weakness in Q1 GDP growth was just temporary, given the scale of the bounceback in consumer spending in Q2. So we still believe that the BoE is on track to deliver another 25bps rate hike in August.”