UK: CPI inflation likely to remain at 2.5% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that in UK, clothing and footwear, alcohol and tobacco, and personal care/insurance each took around 0.1pp off CPI inflation in March.

Key Quotes

“We see inflation remaining at 2.5% despite those moves partly reversing and petrol prices rising. A 0.9pp wedge means a small rise in RPI inflation from 3.3% to 3.4%.”

“Producer price inflation: While sterling rose between March and April the rise in oil prices should dominate input prices, which we expect to rise by 0.8% m-o-m. Higher petrol prices suggest a stronger rise in headline output prices than core.”