Australia: Housing credit slowdown underway – Westpac

Analysts at Westpac note that the credit to the private sector is expanding at a modest pace as the housing sector cools and in 2017, credit grew by 4.9%, slowing from 5.6% for 2016, with a Q4 average of 0.4% per month.

Key Quotes

“The January outcome was a 0.3%, 4.9%yr.”

“For February, we anticipate a rise of 0.4%.”

“Housing credit, at this late stage of the cycle, is slowing in response to tighter lending conditions. The 3-month annualised pace is 5.6% currently, down from 6.8% in March. In January, housing credit grew by 0.48%, 6.2%yr.”

“Business credit is volatile month to month around a modest upward trend, up 3.4%yr, as businesses expand investment in the real economy. December and January saw a temporary consolidation, with prints of +0.1% and -0.1%. For February, we anticipate an outcome more in line with the recent average of 0.3%.”