US-China trade war: which countries have the most to lose from collateral damage  - Wells Fargo

“Some countries could be indirectly affected by a Sino-American trade war via their exports to China, which are assembled into final products and re-exported to the United States”, explained analysts at Wells Fargo. 

Key Quotes: 

“In a worst case scenario, tit-for-tat retaliation, should it develop, could spiral into an all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies. China generally imports raw materials and unfinished products, assembles the inputs and exports finished goods.”

“In the event of a trade war, Chinese exports to the United States could be significantly affected. Consequently, countries that export raw materials and intermediate inputs to China could be indirectly affected by a Sino-American trade war.”

“Which countries would be most at risk of collateral damage? (...) Our analysis shows that Taiwan would be the economy with the most to lose from a trade war between mainland China and the United States.”

“Taiwan is followed by Korea, Malaysia and Hong Kong. With the exception of Chile, South Africa and Costa Rica, all the countries with the most indirect export exposure to the United States (via exports to China) are in Asia.”

“None of the countries in the bottom chart (Hong Kong, Korea, Chile, Malaysia, South Africa and Costa Rica) with the possible exception of Taiwan, have so much indirect export exposure to the United States that they would be at risk of recession from a Sino-American trade war. And if cooler heads prevail in Washington and Beijing, then the risk of even a modest slowdown in economic growth in those countries would recede even further.”