NZ External Migration: back to near its highs – ANZ

After showing signs of easing, New Zealand’s monthly net migrant inflows have turned back up and they remain at a historically strong level, notes the research team at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“Due to natural cycling effects and the improved relative performance of the Australian labour market we expect net inflows to moderate, but only gradually.”

“The pace of growth in visitor arrivals continues to ease, a trend we expect to continue.”

“Key Points

• In seasonally adjusted terms, a net inflow of 6,210 migrants was recorded in January. That is the highest net inflow in seven months, with the recent moderation now looking more like a dip than a definitive peak.
• Student visa arrivals from India and China fell by almost 10% in the past 12 months but this was almost completely offset by increasing student numbers from other countries.
• The number of departures has flattened off. The number of departures of non-New Zealand and non-Australian citizens is trending higher, likely a natural cycling effect of earlier strong arrivals. However, the number of departures of New Zealand citizens remains low, consistent with the strong local labour market. Annual net migration with Australia is stable at roughly zero (which admittedly is a historically strong level).
• Long-term arrivals lifted for a second month to be only slightly lower than the June 2017 high. The increase was again led by non-New Zealand and non-Australian citizen arrivals.
• Visitor arrivals were flat in January (sa). We estimate that arrivals from Australia lifted, but arrivals from China were down – likely partly reflecting timing effects around Chinese New Year. For the first time in five years, visitor arrivals in January were lower than a year earlier. We don’t envisage a large fall in tourist arrivals, but certainly believe a slower pace of growth is likely from what are very high visitor numbers.”