UK: Retail sales expected to have fallen in November despite Black Friday – Lloyds Bank

Analysts at Lloyds Bank suggest that evidence from the John Lewis figures, the CBI retail trade survey and the BRC for October point to some improvement in the UK’s annual rate of growth in retail sales.

Key Quotes

“Of late, these reports have pointed to stronger growth than the official data and we forecast the annual rate moving further lower. With the support from retail discounting being withdrawn and mixed reports on the impact of Black Friday, we look for a decline in monthly sales volumes fell in November. We look for a 0.5%m/m drop, which would take the annual growth rate to -0.6% – its lowest since Q1 2013.”