Forex Today: EUR/JPY - a big mover in Asia, plenty of macro news ahead

Amid subdued trading activity seen around the US dollar in Asia this Thursday, most majors stuck to tight trading ranges, consolidating their post-FOMC moves. However, the EUR/JPY cross was a big mover, having staged a solid 50-pips rebound from session lows of 131.23 to now trade near 131.80 levels. Meanwhile, the Kiwi remained better offered on the back of disappointing NZ retail sales data, while the Yen was the weakest across the fx board, despite mixed market sentiment.  

Among other related markets, the Asian stocks traded mostly lower, with the Nikkei 225 index bucking the trend, while oil and gold prices remained weaker amid holiday-thinned trading. The Japanese and US markets are closed today in observance of Thanksgiving Day.   

Main topics in Asia

The first ECB rate hike is now priced in for late 2019, sources say - Reuters

“The first rate hike is now priced in for late 2019, and I‘m comfortable with that,” one of the sources told Reuters.

NZ: Retail spending loses steam through September quarter - Westpac

Satish Ranchhod, Senior Economist at Westpac, expects New Zealand’s retail sales growth pulled back in September as earlier boosts to spending faded and expect spending growth to remain modest over the coming year.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports dropped to a 6-year low in Sept

According to data from Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell to a 79-month low/ 6-year low at 6.55 million barrels daily (mpd) in September, oilprice.com cited late-Wednesday.

2017 Aus Financial Markets Report: Lack of volatility, absence of strong trends in AUD exchange rates

In its 2017 Australian Financial Markets Report published on Thursday, the Australian Financial Markets Association (AFMA) notes the following points on the Australian forex markets.

Dollar Index hits one-month low, lower lows pattern established

DXY hit a one-month low of 93.21 in the overnight trade as Fed's inflation worries meant slower rate hikes.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, we have plenty of risk events, which will keep the EUR, GBP traders busy. The German final GDP report will be released in early Europe, followed by the Euro area flash manufacturing PMI releases due out in the European session.

Focus also remains on the second readout of the UK Q3 GDP and CBI realized sales data. Meanwhile, the ECB monetary policy meeting account will hog the limelight later on Thursday, especially after yesterday’s dovish FOMC minutes release.

From the Canadian docket, the retail trade figures will be published, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Jordan’s speech will wrap up the Thanksgiving Day.

EUR/USD - Highest daily close since Oct. 20, eyes preliminary PMIs

EUR/USD closed yesterday at 1.1822; its highest end of the day close since Oct. 19. The broad-based USD weakness helped the common currency gain ground despite speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to go into policy hibernation as long as the economy develops as expected.

GBP/USD headed to 1.3400 ahead of UK GDP?

The GBP/USD pair prolonged its upward trajectory for the eighth straight session in Asia this Thursday, with the bulls now looking to conquer 1.34 handle ahead of the UK second estimate Q3 GDP.

ECB accounts preview - Barclays

Analysts at Barclays offer a brief preview on what to expect from the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes due to released today at 1230GMT.