When are Eurozone flash CPIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone CPI flash estimate Overview

Eurostat will publish the euro zone's inflation first estimate for September at 09.00GMT today. Consumer prices are expected to show a slight increase to 1.6% on a yearly basis, following a 1.5% reading seen previously. While the core figures are expected to edge lower to 1.2% in the reported month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

If the CPI print comes weaker-than-expected, it would hit the sentiment around the Euro, knocking-off the EUR/USD pair back towards 1.1720 support zone. On the other hand, a positive reading could provide extra legs to the pullback in the Euro, which could help the rate to sustain the renewed uptick above 1.18 handle.

All eyes are on interest rates differential ahead of the Fed most preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index for fresh EUR/USD price direction.

Key notes

EUR: Constructive EZ Sep CPI release could provide some upside relief - ING

Euro area HICP inflation to increase to 1.7% y-o-y in September - Nomura

About Eurozone CPI flash estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).