When are UK data releases and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Economic Data Overview

The UK industrial production and trade balance data for the month of June are scheduled for release at 08.30 GMT in the European session ahead.

The manufacturing production, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production, is expected to move out of contraction to show no growth on monthly basis in June, against a -0.2% contraction seen in May. Meanwhile, the total industrial production is also expected to show a 0.1% increase m/m in June, as compared to a -0.1% decline recorded previously.

On annualized basis, both the industrial and manufacturing production for June are expected to come in a tad better, by -0.1% and 0.6% respectively.

Separately, the UK goods trade balance is expected to come in at -11 billion in June vs -11.863 billion last, while the construction output is expected to rise 1.4% vs -1.2% previous.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 35 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -2.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

The UK releases are likely to have a bearing on the GBP markets, as they queue up for the first batch of relevant macro news from the UK docket this week.

Better-than expected data could provide fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, which could drive the rate back towards 1.3000 levels, beyond which a test of 1.3050 remains imminent. However, GBP/USD could drop further to test 1.2900 levels, should all the indicators disappoint.

Key notes

UK: Manufacturing and industrial production likely to post 0.4% gain in June - Nomura

UK: Industrial production, construction, and international trade in focus - TDS

UK: Expect a modest recovery in trade deficit – Nomura

UK industrial production to come in largely unchanged - Barclays

About UK manufacturing production and trade balance

The Manufacturing Production released by the National Statistics measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The trade balance released by the National Statistics is a balance between exports and imports of goods. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP.