US: CPI and retail sales to steal the limelight - Rabobank

In view of Michael Every, Senior Asia-Pacific Strategist at Rabobank, the release of US CPI and retail sales data will be the key market moving economic releases for the day.

Key Quotes

“US CPI. On a headline basis that is expected at 0.1% m-o-m and 0.2% core, while on a y-o-y basis it’s seen down from 1.9% to 1.7% and flat at 1.7%, respectively. If so it will confirm that nearterm inflation is going down.” 

“Meanwhile, we also get to see real average weekly earnings, which in May were up just 0.5% y-oy. If that print stays low (there is no consensus), then it’s a strong argument in support of what the Telegraph says above, and says that inflation is unlikely to go back up sustainably.”

“We then conclude the week with US retail sales, seen up 0.1% m-o-m headline and 0.4% exautos and gasoline. This report was surprisingly weak last month, and a repeat this time round especially if backed up with weaker CPI too- is likely to see Treasury yields and the USD index tumble. Equities will probably soar, however, as it means that even with no inflation, and no consumer spending, the Fed will have their back.”