US NFP: Market expectations are for a 175k-180k increase - BBH

Analysts at BBH point out that expectations for today's US non-farm payroll report are for a 175k-180k increase.  

Key Quotes

“The monthly job gains have slowed recently.  Consider that the three-month average was a little above 200k in February.  In May it stood at 121k, the lowest since July 2012.  However, given the dynamics of the participation rate, slowing jobs growth has seen the unemployment rate fall from 4.7% in February to 4.3% in May.  The underemployment rate has fallen.  It stands at 8.4%, down from 9.4% in January.”

“A monthly gain of over 200k coupled with an increase in average hourly earnings would go a long way toward underscoring the upside economic surprises seen recently in the US.  It would solidify expectations that the Fed is still on track to continue normalizing its monetary stance, which includes a balance sheet adjustment before the end of the year.  Hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% for a 2.6% year-over-year rate (up from 2.5% in May).”