Australia: Trade surplus to rebound partially to $1.8bn - Westpac

Australia's trade balance, which has been comfortably in surplus, felt the impacts of Cyclone Debbie in April and for May, analysts at Westpac expect the surplus to rebound partially, to $1.8bn, up from $0.6bn in April, but still short of the $3.2bn in March.

Key Quotes

“Export earnings are forecast to rise by 4.7%, +$1.4bn, after an 8.3% slump. Coal shipments returned to normal, adding $1.3bn (although that would still leave coal export earnings $1.2bn below March due to lower prices). A jump in LNG shipments could add around $0.7bn, but fully offsetting this is the impact of a 14% fall in the iron ore price.”

“Imports are forecast to rise by 0.6%, $0.2bn, as prices rise because of the weaker currency, down 1.6% on a TWI basis.”