When are Aussie jobs and how might they affect AUD/USD and AUD crosses?

Australian jobs report (April)

Australia's monthly jobs report is back on the cards for Asian markets today. The report will be released at 0130 GMT. The employment change is expected to be positive by 5K and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.9%. However, today's report might be of even keener interest to markets than previous. In the latest minutes,  the RBA explained that the developments in its labour market warranted “careful monitoring”. The RBA also said that they expect low wage growth to have “dampening effect” on aggregate inflation.

The RBA also warns that there is “significant uncertainty” about how to measure the degree of spare capacity in the economy, given the high levels of underemployment in recent years. Interestingly, the RBA said the distinction between full-time and part-time work had become less important in assessing labour market conditions.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

The key to today's data may not be centred around part-time and full-time skilled employment, considering the RBA's recent comments within its minutes. However, anything either side of what is expected throughout the report is likely to have an effect on the price of the Aussie. Given the current risk-off climate, anything significantly disappointing could really bring about some damage to the Aussie crosses especially. AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD could be quite volatile on this release while AUD/USD bears might find a hard time of gaining too much ground considering how out of favour the greenback is with the market due to political turmoil in the US currently, (See Jim Langlands' report below for support levels and Forex today for current market risk-off conditions). Meanwhile, any positive surprises could see the Aussie break above the current channel resistance of 0.7440/50 and late Apri lows with 0.7520 as a key target.

Key notes

AUDUSD: Minor support is seen at 0.7395/0.7400 - Jim Lanaglands

Analysts at Westpac explained that "despite our Jobs Index pointing to upside risks for near-term employment gains, we are expecting survey volatility to drive a pull-back from Mar’s 60.9k jump which included full-time +74.5k and hours worked +0.2% - however, both are tracking at just 0.8%yr annually."

Forex today: a rough ride and a reality check for dollar bulls in a spooked market - FXStreet

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).