EUR/GBP: closing in on the 200 hourly ema at 0.8450

Currently, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8445, closing in on the 200 ema on the hourly sticks and up 0.36% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8451 and low at 0.8419.

Fundamentals driving this cross are political. To start with, there was a disputed version of the meeting held between PM May and EU Commission president Juncker last week. Brexit headlines will be moving the pound and cross from here on. The German press reported that Juncker told Chancellor Merkel that May showed no willingness to compromise and had “unrealistic expectations” about how Brexit negotiations would proceed. However, PM May’s office said it did not “recognize” this account of the meeting which it said were “constructive”, as explained by analysts at Scotiabank. 

Final round of French elections countdown has begun

There has been no significant change n the polls and Macron remains in the lead over Le Pen by 61-39% in voting intentions. The euro got a significant boost after the first round and much of the expected outcome has been priced in already. 

EUR/USD: fading rallies until 1.0830 / 1.0730 support levels - Scotiabank

EUR/GBP levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that EUR/GBP’s near term outlook is neutral to positive while above 0.8300. "EUR/GBP remains below the 55- and 200-day moving averages at 0.8555/96 above which lurks the seven-month resistance line at .8611. While this caps, a retest of key support at 0.8334/04 may be seen, "the analysts explained, adding, "if slipped through, the 0.8252 the July 2016 low would be in focus. Where are we wrong? A negative bias is now entrenched below the 0.8555/96 55 and 200-day ma. Should a rise above the 2016-17 resistance line at 0.8611 be seen we would have to re-evaluate our forecast."