French elections: who is likely to win the second round? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that as it stands, second-round polling would say with a high conviction that Mr Macron will win. 

Key Quotes:

"We agree as it would require a large error in the polls at this stage and this is why we have been focused primarily on the first round. 

At this stage, we expect the market to near fully price in this outcome and the second round could prove to be a non-event for markets.

In politics though, one can never rule anything out completely, and we have noticed a previous pattern in second- round polling that is worth keeping an eye on." 

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