UK: May’s early elections decision set to become a tactical success - Rabobank

The analysis team at Rabobank explains that despite the fact that UK PM May promised on several occasions not to call an early election, her decision to do precisely that is currently looking set to become a tactical success. 

Key Quotes

“Aided by the deep divisions within the main opposition Labour party and the fact that the UK economy is yet to see a significant adverse impact from Brexit, opinion polls suggest that May has the potential to forge a significant majority government from the June 8 election.  Not only would this free her from the constraints of the previous PM’s 2015 election manifesto and strengthen her hand to put in place her own tax and education policies but it could limit opposition to her hard Brexit stance from the UK’s pro-EU factions.”  

“Between now and the June 8 election the UK’s third part the Lib-Dems can be expected to campaign on a pro-EU ticket.  This is likely to win the party back some of the seats lost at the 2015 election in (EU) Remain areas such as London, Cambridge and Oxford.  However, this is still unlikely to result in a substantial position.  Indeed, with many Labour seats looking set to be lost to the Tory party, any notion that the June election could stop Brexit currently appears misplaced.  Instead, without a 2020 election in the works and with a strong majority under her belt PM May could have greater ability to push the country towards a hard Brexit without objection from a cross-party alliance of pro-EU MPs.”

“If the Labour party were to re-group under the guidance of a new, popular leader the Remain campaign in the UK may find itself with a reinvigorated position in parliament.  However, since a June election pushes the next ballot out to 2022, it appears likely that Brexit will be done and dusted before this has a chance of happening.”