EUR/USD nears 100-DMA hurdle, eyes US CPI data

EUR/USD neared 100-DMA level of 1.0626 in a holiday thinned trade in Asia with traders eyeing the US CPI and Retail Sales figure.

The financial markets will remain closed across Europe, thus the pair is likely to stay comatose, although the activity may gather pace in the US session.

Focus on US CPI

The cost of living as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) is seen rising 2.6% y/y in March, compared to February’s print of 2.7%.  Meanwhile, the core CPI is seen rising to 2.3% y/y from 2.3%. Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to drop 0.1% m/m in March.

The 10-yr yield has already suffered a sharpest drop since January 2016 and may extend losses, pulling the USD lower if the CPI prints lower-than-expected.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The spot was last seen trading around 1.0615. A rising trend line drawn from Jan low and Mar low is seen offering support at 1.0609. A breach of the trend line support could yield a revisit to 1.0569 (Apr 10 low). A daily close below the same would add credence to the bearish RSI and open doors for 1.0495 (Mar 2 low).

On the higher side, breach of 1.0626 (100-DMA) would expose 1.0651 (50-DMA) - 1.0677 (Apr 13 high). A daily close above the same would signal revive bullishness and open up upside towards 1.0829 (Feb 2 high).