France: Less than two weeks to go – Standard Chartered

Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Senior Economist at Standard Chartered, explains that France’s first round vote for the presidential elections takes place on 23 April and two weeks before the ballot, all polls predict that Marine Le Pen (far-right) and Macron (centre) will qualify for the second round face-off, in which Macron is seen winning with around 60% (7 May).

Key Quotes

“Nevertheless, uncertainties remain: many voters are still not sure about their choice, while a record number say they might abstain. In both rounds, the outcome will become apparent at 8pm, with the official results confirmed by the Constitutional Court on 26 April (first-round results) and 17 May (second-round results) “at the latest”.”

“Eleven candidates are running on 23 April, four of whom harness 85% of the voters’ intentions: Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Seven candidates share the remaining 15% of voters’ intentions.” 

“Market nervousness about a possible Le Pen victory has receded somewhat from its peak in mid-March, reflecting the view that her victory may be less likely now. It is nevertheless clear that a Le Pen victory would be a shock event, raising questions about the future of the EU and likely leading to volatility in markets.”