EUR/USD 'on the edge' near 50-DMA; Greece vs. EU vs. Euro

Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0618, marginally up +0.13% or 12-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0632 and low at 1.0602.

Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's Finance Minister, had the audacity today to indicate that the euro exchange rate is too weak 'for Germany.' Then, market participants could wonder where is the European Community spirit when important figures dare to address a currency level, rather than discuss actionable plans to improve business conditions and productivity in that same Union.

On the other hand, the shared currency seems to receive external support from Trump's devaluation rhetoric that prohibits the much-expected crash towards parity and below, at least in the short and medium-term. However, the euro has to fight the never ending battle against Greece due to his massive 180% debt to GDP ratio (France debt to GDP ratio clocks around 97.4% and Italy close to 133%). Hence, even 'if' the IMF and company were to allocate another 'assistance package' aka bailout, the cancerogenous side effects already spread to the entire EU as the excess weights as much as the Brexit saga limiting the manoeuvres Germany may execute to save the day.

EUR/USD sticks to the neutral outlook – UOB

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 8-weeks that EUR/USD pair had the best trading day at +1.13% (Jan.5) or 119-pips, and the worst at -0.80% (Jan.18) or (84)-pips. Furthermore, the US 10yr treasury yields fell on Friday from 2.46% to 2.41%, down -1.31% on the day or -0.0320, during last week's trading session it went as low as -1.82%.

Technical levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 1.0750 (100-DMA), then at 1.0870 (high Dec.8) and above that at 1.0950 (high Nov.10). While supports are aligned at 1.0600 (50-DMA), later at 1.0453 (low Jan.11) and below that at 1.0339 (low Jan.1). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems slightly extended heading north. Therefore, there is evidence to expect further Euro gains in the near term. After a 'surprise' in risk sentiment, the upside is likely to be limited between the pair's 100-DMA and 200-DMA.

On the long-term view, the pair continues its previous uptrend from 1.0620, as of writing, trading 120-pips above 1.0706 (short-term 38.2%% Fib), then the next logical resistance 1.0820 (short-term 50.0%Fib) makes a perfect target for risk-on sentiment and above that at 1.0932 (short-term 61.8% Fib). To the downside, bears need an open and close below 1.0706 to increase the selling pressure to drag the pair lower, that would open doors towards 1.0566 (short-term 23.6% Fib) and 1.0339 (low Jan.1) would be the next critical support.

A break below this level, would open doors and attract massive short-sellers towards parity. However, 1.0070 figures as the euro's last stand, those couple pips away from the round mark level make the difference between an all-time low-bottom vs. the 'infamous' parity.

EUR/USD: trading at the lower end of the range