16 Jan 2014
Astralian jobs next: AUD/USD reaction
FXstreet.com (Bali) - The Australian Dollar vs US Dollar has been completely smashed in the past 2 trading days, sliding from 0.9080 highs down to marginally drive sub 0.89 only to stabilize around the round number ahead of the Australian jobs report, due at 00.30 GMT.
What job figures to expect? - Westpac
According to Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac: "Consensus is +10K on total jobs, as it has been in 4 of the past 5 months, in which period the headline number has been -12, -11, +5, -1, +21. So an actual print of +10k would be a surprise for this volatile number."
"We see risks to the downside, looking for -10k. The full-time/ part-time split is also worth watching. The median forecast is for the unemployment rate to hold at 5.8% but Westpac expects it to tick up to 5.9%, which would equal the post-GFC high of June 2009", Sean said.
"Last month’s upside surprise on jobs produced a 25 pip AUD/USD bounce which was wiped out inside 30 minutes. The way AUD has been trading in recent sessions, there is probably also a skew today – a strong headline is unlikely to produce multi-session reversal but a number near Westpac’s forecast should test 0.8860 key support."
AUD/USD technicals
As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes: "The hourly chart showing 20 SMA still capping the upside, and indicators flat in negative territory. Latest session recoveries were limited by the 0.8930 level now immediate short term resistance, while the 4 hours chart maintains a negative technical tone, still looking for a retest of the 0.8820 low."
What job figures to expect? - Westpac
According to Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac: "Consensus is +10K on total jobs, as it has been in 4 of the past 5 months, in which period the headline number has been -12, -11, +5, -1, +21. So an actual print of +10k would be a surprise for this volatile number."
"We see risks to the downside, looking for -10k. The full-time/ part-time split is also worth watching. The median forecast is for the unemployment rate to hold at 5.8% but Westpac expects it to tick up to 5.9%, which would equal the post-GFC high of June 2009", Sean said.
"Last month’s upside surprise on jobs produced a 25 pip AUD/USD bounce which was wiped out inside 30 minutes. The way AUD has been trading in recent sessions, there is probably also a skew today – a strong headline is unlikely to produce multi-session reversal but a number near Westpac’s forecast should test 0.8860 key support."
AUD/USD technicals
As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes: "The hourly chart showing 20 SMA still capping the upside, and indicators flat in negative territory. Latest session recoveries were limited by the 0.8930 level now immediate short term resistance, while the 4 hours chart maintains a negative technical tone, still looking for a retest of the 0.8820 low."