10 Jan 2014
Flash: USD/JPY still holding the 20 day ma on a closing basis - Commerzbank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that USD/JPY continues to push towards the 105.15 resistance, which guards the more important 105.46/49 levels (recent high and long term Fibo).
Key Quotes
“While we continue to favour initial failure in this vicinity, will need to close below its 20 day moving average at 104.49 and preferably below its 103.74 May high to confirm this view and alleviate upside
pressure.”
“Above 105.50 would introduce scope to the 1998-2014 resistance line at 106.64. Reasons for our concerns are as follows: - not only has the market reversed from its long term Fibonacci retracement at 105.49, BUT we have a 13 count and a divergence of the daily and weekly RSI. All 3 factors suggest that the market has topped for now.”
“The Elliott wave count is suggesting that we will then see a deeper retracement to 103.35/102.05, the 23.6% and the 38.2% retracements of the move up from October.”
Key Quotes
“While we continue to favour initial failure in this vicinity, will need to close below its 20 day moving average at 104.49 and preferably below its 103.74 May high to confirm this view and alleviate upside
pressure.”
“Above 105.50 would introduce scope to the 1998-2014 resistance line at 106.64. Reasons for our concerns are as follows: - not only has the market reversed from its long term Fibonacci retracement at 105.49, BUT we have a 13 count and a divergence of the daily and weekly RSI. All 3 factors suggest that the market has topped for now.”
“The Elliott wave count is suggesting that we will then see a deeper retracement to 103.35/102.05, the 23.6% and the 38.2% retracements of the move up from October.”