27 Dec 2016
What's the best trade for the UK in 2017? - Socgen
Kit Juckes, economist at Societe Generale explained that the simplest UK trade this year is to go short of longer-dated gilts, or pay 20year swaps. More inflation and deteriorating public finances along with uncertainty about Brexit, looks like a toxic mix.
Key Quotes:
"I think we could see 2% in 10year gilts, and 30s over 2.5%. Short GBP/SEK or GBP/USD are attractive trades too but the rates market offers more interesting opportunities here. The bottom line - the UK yield curve is too flat for the economic and policy outlook, in absolute terms and even more so relative to the European and US curves."